Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 28 Aug 2026, 18:21 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:19 UTC

Rand Group

@randgroup

Quoting · 28 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: 30% chance Bitcoin hits $100,000 this year 7% chance it happens next month https://t.co/hUoiinNmTt

Actually... $100K for $BTC might be even conservative https://t.co/SKCPPzk7hQ https://t.co/TrTvoPQdmX

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,545 at 28 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,153 at 29 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
r = 78152.99 / 77544.63 − 1 = +0.8%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$100K for $BTC might be even conservative https://t.co/SKCPPzk7hQ https://t.co/TrTvoPQdmX”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3