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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 28 Aug 2026, 10:35 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

Bitcoin has formed a bearish divergence on the 4H timeframe. Losing $78,000 here would be bad for BTC in the short term. https://t.co/B13fTa3Aem

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,573 at 28 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $79,573 at 28 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 79573.35 / 79572.68 − 1 = +0.0%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 4 hours (stated in post)
Evidence span: “Bitcoin has formed a bearish divergence on the 4H timeframe.”
Confidence: 93%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3