Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,475 at 26 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,920 at 27 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC.
3. r = 79919.87 / 78475.06 − 1 = +1.8%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology