Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,300 at 26 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,276 at 27 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
3. r = 79276.07 / 78299.51 − 1 = +1.25%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.25% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology