Published 25 Aug 2026, 18:22 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC
Killa
@KillaXBT
Everyone was comparing the 4 year cycle lows. But in reality, the better comparison was the breakout. $BTC broke its ATH pre-halving, which completely disrupted the traditional 4 year cycle timing and everything people associated with it. That’s why we’re now 40%+ above the 57K lows and have already tested 80K. People were looking at 1-year cycles, mid-cycle corrections, and calling for a Q4 bottom. But the more accurate measurement was what happens after Bitcoin forms a new ATH. Once you looked at the timeframe between the ATH and subsequent bear market, it became clear that BTC had already completed its bear market far quicker than previous cycles. Why? Because BTC formed its ATH quicker. ATH came quicker > top came quicker > bottom came quicker. That was the core of my thesis for months beforehand. I even created in-depth YT videos regarding this timing shift. Now, all you really need to observe is what happens when the trend shifts. And from what we’re seeing… their is a strong possibility the trend has already shifted.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Repeat call within an existing 24h episode
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post
Uses only text available at publication time
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