Prediction evidence

Sh

Don’t Follow Shardi B If You Hate Money

@ShardiB2

$BTC options strategy from the Agents: My pick: March 2027 $50 call At roughly today's volatility, I'd expect it to cost somewhere around $5-ish, although I'd use the actual live bid/ask before placing the trade. Why I like it: 1. You're only ~11% OTM. IBIT doesn't need a crazy move to get the option firmly into the money. 2. You have almost seven months rather than four. That's enormously valuable with Bitcoin. 3. Delta should be roughly 0.45–0.50. So you're already getting meaningful exposure rather than buying a lottery ticket. 4. It gives BTC time for a Q4 move AND a continuation into Q1. That's the big distinction from December. Your December $50 costs $2.90. That's cheap, but December 18 is a hard deadline. If IBIT trades: October: $48 December: $50 February: $65 you nailed the BTC thesis and the December call may still lose nearly everything. The March call captures the move. What the March $50 could look like For illustration, assume approximately a $5.00 premium: IBIT at March expirationCall valueApprox. return $45$0-100% $50$0-100% $55$5~0% $60$10+100% $65$15+200% $70$20+300% $80$30+500% The actual premium/breakeven will depend on today's quote, but that's the basic payoff. Here's where it gets more interesting If you tell me your actual thesis is something like: BTC is going substantially higher — perhaps 30–50%+ — sometime in the next 6–12 months. I would not buy the $55/$60/$65 calls just because they're cheaper. For example, the June 2027 $66 call currently has only about a 0.27 delta despite giving you almost ten months. That's a lot more dependent on a huge move. I'd rather buy near-the-money / modestly OTM leverage. So my sweet spot is approximately 0.45–0.60 delta. That means roughly: March $45–$50 calls or June $47–$50 calls. March $45 vs. $50 This is probably the real decision. The March $45 will cost more, but it behaves much more like leveraged stock. My estimate puts delta around 0.59 versus about 0.48 for the $50. If IBIT merely goes to $55–60, I'd rather own the $45. If IBIT explodes to $70+, I'd rather have deployed the same dollars into more $50s. So: Higher probability / still leveraged: March $45 Best overall R/R: March $50 Maximum aggression: December $50–$55 I would choose March 19, 2027 $50 calls for the thesis we've been discussing. One additional point: IBIT has already risen sharply recently—Finviz shows roughly a 20%+ one-month move and elevated RSI—so I wouldn't necessarily chase the entire option position on one print. I would probably establish part now and leave room to add on a BTC/IBIT pullback.