Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 25 Aug 2026, 16:48 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC

il Capo

@CryptoCapo_

In reply to · 25 Aug 2026, 16:46 UTC · context given to the AI

@CryptoCapo_ $BTC 100k soon ?

@badass_alpha1 I think it will reach it eventually, but not much higher.

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,153 at 25 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,987 at 26 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 77986.94 / 79153.3 − 1 = -1.47%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.47% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@badass_alpha1 I think it will reach it eventually, but not much higher.”
Confidence: 73%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3