Prediction evidence

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Ryan Rossi | Horse

@TheFlowHorse

Probably an important reminded for anyone feeling FOMO right now in crypto, and anyone forcing trades right now. I’ll start by saying I am in the camp that thinks this Bitcoin move looks more like the start of a larger trend than another short-lived bounce. That’s great because when Bitcoin trends, the entire crypto market opens up with it. You get more continuation trades, cleaner pullbacks, stronger leaders, and eventually more rotation into other names. A huge opportunity set for all timeframes. Everyone from scalpers to swing traders will have too many opportunities to keep track of. But as a caveat I would try to remind anyone fomoing to not confuse last week with what every week should look like from here. The first move out of a dead market is often violent because price has to reprice quickly. After that, it is normal for things to cool off, chop sideways, pull back, and let momentum, funding, and positioning reset. Do not confuse the speed of the first move with the speed of the entire trend. The crazy volatility people remember from crypto bull markets usually comes later, when leverage, speculation, and participation really start building on each other. Onchain right now might be a different story between @fomo and @Pumpfun action, but for all the big liquid stuff, it’s far different imo. Early in a trend, things can actually be much more orderly: Strong move → consolidation → pullback → continuation. Crypto has been bad for long enough that people are trained to treat every move like they need to chase it before it disappears. If the larger trend is actually changing, that is the habit you need to get rid of. The goal is not to chase every green candle. It is to recognize that the environment may have changed, stay involved, and take advantage of the resets. If this is a real larger trend, there should be plenty more opportunities ahead and last week would certainly not be the only one.