Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 25 Aug 2026, 15:16 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:56 UTC

Dan Held

@danheld

In 10 years it won't matter if you bought Bitcoin at $30,000 or $60,000. The most important thing is that you bought.

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Awaiting manual review

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “In 10 years it won't matter if you bought Bitcoin at $30,000 or $60,000.”
Confidence: 53%
Review state: needs review · Low confidence (53%); Unsupported horizon: "unspecified timeframe"
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.