Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 25 Aug 2026, 00:06 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:01 UTC

Cheds Trading

@BigCheds

In reply to · 24 Aug 2026, 22:14 UTC · context given to the AI

Bullish divergence playing out $BTC https://t.co/mjXWq1XLye

@inmortalcrypto Yes it’s already resolved/played out. We now have a hidden bear divergence on the weekly.

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,732 at 25 Aug 2026, 01:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,624 at 26 Aug 2026, 01:00 UTC.
r = 78623.94 / 79732.32 − 1 = -1.4%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@inmortalcrypto Yes it’s already resolved/played out. We now have a hidden bear divergence on the weekly.”
Confidence: 95%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3