Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,493 at 24 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,461 at 25 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC.
3. r = 2460.83 / 2492.65 − 1 = -1.28%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.28% against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology