Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Aug 2026, 12:01 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:19 UTC

Rand Group

@randgroup

In reply to · 24 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC · context given to the AI

🟠JUST IN: Strategy buys ZERO Bitcoin last week, piling $1.9 BILLION into its dollar reserve instead.

@coinbureau Time for another $BTC run

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,140 at 24 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,971 at 25 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 78971.29 / 79139.82 − 1 = -0.2%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time