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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

EVERYONE WHO GAVE UP ON ETHEREUM THIS CYCLE IS ABOUT TO LEARN WHY THE LAST HOLDERS WON IN 2017. Same accumulation. Same re-accumulation. Same downtrend channel that broke into the run. ETH/BTC at 0.031. The 2017 break ran the ratio 14x, to 0.14. From today that level is 4.5x on ETH against BTC. Time to shine.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,512 at 24 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,473 at 25 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 2473.28 / 2512.26 − 1 = -1.6%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “EVERYONE WHO GAVE UP ON ETHEREUM THIS CYCLE IS ABOUT TO LEARN WHY THE LAST HOLDERS WON IN 2017.”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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