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Mainnet trading opens after on-chain activation and launch checks. Testnet uses test USDC on Base Sepolia; test tokens have no monetary value. Real-money rounds will carry their own terms and risks. Arena is not available to US persons. Questions: legal@rafa.ai

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Leaderboard / @Washigorira / 2091556894800506883:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 23 Aug 2026, 16:03 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:59 UTC

Wa

Titan

@Washigorira

#Bitcoin Fractal playing out. BTC looking good ahead of the weekly close. https://t.co/8aew0A0r0J

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,406 at 23 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $79,336 at 30 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 79336.13 / 77405.67 − 1 = +2.5%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +2.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 7 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “#Bitcoin Fractal playing out.”
Confidence: 86%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

correct

Baseline price

$77,406

Evaluation price

$79,336

Move

+2.5%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 16:12 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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