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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 23 Aug 2026, 12:18 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$ETH dropping below $1,550 was probably the biggest bear trap ever. Now, Ethereum has reclaimed it, which means the bottom is likely in. https://t.co/rAaUbI4a3L

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,427 at 23 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,512 at 24 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 2512.26 / 2426.69 − 1 = +3.5%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +3.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$ETH dropping below $1,550 was probably the biggest bear trap ever.”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

Outcome record

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