Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 22 Aug 2026, 12:57 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

₿IRB

@crypto_birb

In reply to · 22 Aug 2026, 12:52 UTC · context given to the AI

@crypto_birb @CryptoWizardd So why new lows aren’t coming? Why btc should have disrespected the cycle?

@DDjq0oo @CryptoWizardd We only deal with probabilities. With recent reversal, chances for $30k practically vanished unless a black swan arrives

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,300 at 22 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,202 at 23 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 77201.58 / 77300.01 − 1 = -0.1%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@DDjq0oo @CryptoWizardd We only deal with probabilities. With recent reversal, chances for $30k practically vanished unless a black swan arrives”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3