Prediction evidence

mi

Miles Deutscher

@milesdeutscher

My general thoughts on crypto right now (how I'm positioning): • $BTC just had a massive breakout, and the catalyst was obviously macro-driven as the US Treasury announced bond buybacks to calm surging long-term yields. • Over the past week, there have been billions in short liquidations. A lot of the "sailor death spiral" bearishness and Iran headline fear had already flushed out sellers before this move even started. The market was oversold, sentiment was at peak bearish, and the first positive catalyst just triggered an explosive squeeze (what we saw on $BTC driving violently hitting 75k+) • My take on why stocks are lagging: think equities are dealing with a different problem entirely: sticky inflation, AI capex concerns, and semiconductor weakness. That's capping equities regardless of what's happening with yields. Bitcoin and gold can shine here even if equities stay choppy for a while. • On altcoins: quality is quite concentrated right now. There aren't many strong opportunities, which actually makes trading easier. I'm mainly watching revenue-generating protocols with strong flows that held up during the bear: Hyperliquid, Zcash, ENA, VVV, ETHFi - to name a few. • My actual portfolio approach right now: smaller, leveraged continuation trades on breakouts, not big spot longs. Big spot buying is reserved for bigger dips, not chasing a squeeze like this. • Bigger picture: unless equities are in a real risk-on environment, it's historically been hard for Bitcoin to sustain a real bull run. There's probably enough momentum here to push into the 80s. Sustaining a run toward 100+ is a different question entirely. nfa - this is just where my head's at right now.