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Published 21 Aug 2026, 12:08 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:36 UTC
Jordi Visser
@jvisserlabs
BTC is an community based energy asset that historically accelerates out of bear markets when vol has compressed and it is ignored. This is measured best in sigma moves. The pattern of the last two major shifts coming out of 2018 and 2022 (I hate to say four year cycle but yes) the pattern was seen by a large weekly sigma move where BTC crossed the 200 day moving average the week of the sigma move. So far this week is exactly the same pattern. More in this week's video.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 79408.95 / 77200 − 1 = +2.9%d × r = +2.9% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correctOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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