Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $76,710 at 21 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,121 at 22 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC.
3. r = 77120.86 / 76709.63 − 1 = +0.5%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology