Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 21 Aug 2026, 08:52 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:19 UTC

Rand Group

@randgroup

In reply to · 21 Aug 2026, 08:51 UTC · context given to the AI

JUST IN: Bitcoin skyrockets to $78,000 30% chance it hits $100,000 this year

@Kalshi_Crypto Hard not to be bullish now https://t.co/B3AktxrdKO

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,248 at 21 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,195 at 22 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 77195.48 / 79247.76 − 1 = -2.6%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@Kalshi_Crypto Hard not to be bullish now https://t.co/B3AktxrdKO”
Confidence: 94%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3