Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 20 Aug 2026, 16:57 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

Quoting · 20 Aug 2026, 14:01 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: 60% chance Bitcoin hits $75,000 within the next month https://t.co/osDTxXBCc6

$BTC has broken out of its downtrend. $75,000 could happen much faster than most people expect. https://t.co/9Q4leEToef https://t.co/pJMgzyu2SR

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $72,809 at 20 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,451 at 21 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 77451.34 / 72808.57 − 1 = +6.4%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +6.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time