Prediction evidence

Sa

SalsaTekila

@SalsaTekila

I think BTC is behaving very similarly to the early 2023 bull run. Back then we had Alameda and FTX blowing up, and the sentiment was generally ultra-pessimistic. Then there was some notable FUD, including Genesis Global Capital going bankrupt, and fears that Grayscale would have to sell assets as a result, or that Barry would go to jail. Yet I vividly remember being surprised that, on the day of the FUD, markets wouldn't tick further down when I would have expected it most. A short while later, the breakout from the 16k bottom started happening, and new narratives emerged later on, including BTC ETFs. The key lesson here is that FUD failed to push prices down, and that was a clear sign of seller exhaustion. I think June was the capitulation, with record ETF outflows, and the FUD that came after (most notably Saylor hammering hundreds of millions of dollars in sales into the 60ks, and Coldcard) was the signal that there are no real sizeable spot sellers anymore. This uptick was bound to happen eventually, whether precipitated by Bessent's comment or something else (it happened sooner than I had expected, thanks to him). In essence, we're probably at a juncture that I would describe as a major shift. Green dildos are possible! All the wealthy, smart, sidelined capital is asking the question: should I buy BTC again? And when you need to panic buy, it's preferable to be early. Disable your red buttons; the rest of the year will be green. I think BTC settles somewhere in the 80-100k range before year-end, realistically.