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Published 19 Aug 2026, 13:38 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:56 UTC
fejau
@fejau_inc
Quoting · 19 Aug 2026, 13:11 UTC · context given to the AI
Treasury said it is at least doubling the maximum size of purchases of longer-dated nominal coupons in its program to buy back government debt, raising the cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation beginning Sept. 9. https://t.co/LKAXZ7L5bYThe dovish signals keep firing. As mentioned above in the last roundup, the policy is clear as day on the following: - marginal macro policy is moving towards the Treasury - The government will ensure the AI buildout goes off without a hitch. Since new marginal buildout is being funded with debt, the long end must be kept in check through that. - The change to the word changes in QRA a couple weeks ago was a clear signal that Bessent is happy to outdo Yellen in supporting the long end - Because of this, I’m liking debasement trades again like gold and Bitcoin. Gold up 3% today. Think Bitcoin will do well too. The game is rigged, the vol controllers are alive and well. Don’t fight it :)View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 71649.71 / 64964.5 − 1 = +10.3%d × r = +10.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correctOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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