Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 19 Aug 2026, 12:58 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:37 UTC

Crypto Tony

@CryptoTony__

In reply to · 19 Aug 2026, 07:58 UTC · context given to the AI

I’m $9.8M short Still holding $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts. I actually added some $HYPE at the pump to 60$. My bias is still intact, still holding all conviction that we’ll get a big downside move at some point soon. Will post a $BTC update soon too. Current record: 35 wins / 0 losses - all called live.

@MizerXBT Hmmmm

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first SOL price at or after publication, $78.35 at 19 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $87.02 at 20 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 87.02 / 78.35 − 1 = +11.07%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -11.07% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Solana (SOL)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@MizerXBT Hmmmm”
Confidence: 93%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status: incorrect

Prediction evidence

Source post

How this was scored

AI interpretation

Outcome record

Request a correction