Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 18 Aug 2026, 17:09 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:19 UTC

Rand Group

@randgroup

In reply to · 18 Aug 2026, 17:06 UTC · context given to the AI

@randgroup 80 is just the appetizer if eth starts running

@FabiusDefi Would be epic, $ETH looking like it wants to run.

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,910 at 18 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,091 at 19 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 2090.64 / 1910.22 − 1 = +9.4%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +9.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@FabiusDefi Would be epic, $ETH looking like it wants to run.”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3