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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 18 Aug 2026, 11:38 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$ETH made a new low in 2026, but ETH/BTC made a higher low. This means ETH outperformed BTC during a downtrend. Imagine the Ethereum rally during the Bitcoin uptrend. https://t.co/c6FLzgm26E

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,287 at 18 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,459 at 19 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC.
r = 64459.11 / 64286.58 − 1 = +0.3%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$ETH made a new low in 2026, but ETH/BTC made a higher low.”
Confidence: 91%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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