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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 15 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

ETHEREUM IS AT $1,874 AND I STILL THINK IT DIPS FIRST. $1,750 to $1,715 is where my bids sit. June already showed the script. $ETH lost a five-month range, swept the lows, and had it all back within weeks. The people who sold that wick sold the bottom of the quarter. The dip is not the risk. Selling into it is. Lose the June low and I'm wrong.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,883 at 15 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,888 at 16 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 1887.66 / 1882.85 − 1 = +0.3%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “ETHEREUM IS AT $1,874 AND I STILL THINK IT DIPS FIRST.”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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