Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,236 at 13 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,856 at 14 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
3. r = 62855.91 / 63235.83 − 1 = -0.6%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology