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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 13 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

THREE ETHEREUM SWEEPS. ZERO FOLLOW THROUGH. THE LIQUIDITY IS UNDERNEATH. $1,930, $1,960, $1,990. Each high taken, each one rejected. The magnet sits at $1,715 to $1,760, and that's where I bid. Lose $1,715 on a daily close and the zone failed. Three failed sweeps up means the market is done collecting there.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,873 at 13 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,884 at 14 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 1883.55 / 1872.9 − 1 = +0.6%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “THREE ETHEREUM SWEEPS.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

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