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Leaderboard / @AshCrypto / 2087902650918396331:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 13 Aug 2026, 14:02 UTC · fetched 12 Oct 2026, 06:24 UTC

As

Ash Crypto

@AshCrypto

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 U.S. stocks market added $400 billion and hit a new all time high after PPI dropped to a 4-month low. Bullish for Bitcoin because sooner or later we will see money rotation into crypto. https://t.co/tY1bHt8pd7

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,797 at 13 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,539 at 14 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 62539.38 / 63797.14 − 1 = -1.97%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.97% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Bullish for Bitcoin because sooner or later we will see money rotation into crypto.”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$63,797

Evaluation price

$62,539

Move

-1.97%

Neutral threshold

±1.00%

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

20 Oct 2026, 14:56 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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