Prediction evidence

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Travis Kling

@Travis_Kling

NFA. I think BTC has a Saylor problem, a quantum problem and a paper Bitcoin problem. The first two need to be worked through. I don't think there's really anything you can do about #3, but it's def damaging to the value proposition of BTC. I still think the price of BTC can go up a lot even with a paper BTC problem, but it's highly unlikely to "run away" to the upside. Too much paper BTC that can be sold (an infinite amount). Saylor is directionally doing the right things now (eg, selling BTC; not buying any BTC; raising cash; issuing MSTR; not issuing STRC), but he still owns waaaay too much BTC IMO. He has $50bn. He needs to sell at least half that to clean up "the Saylor problem". He's been selling $100mm/week. At that rate, it would take him 5 years of continuous selling to sell half the stack. Not great. Quantum risk preparedness has made progress this year. It's now being taken seriously, which it really wasn't at the beginning of the year. You want to see continued progress being made, and hope there's no big leap in quantum capabilities. That's been the fear in the market since March when Google moved their quantum migration date up to 2029. That was the signal that this is a major issue for BTC. Because what if Google moves it up to 2027?