Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,362 at 12 Aug 2026, 23:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,463 at 13 Aug 2026, 23:00 UTC.
3. r = 63463.34 / 63361.58 − 1 = +0.2%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology