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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 12 Aug 2026, 15:28 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$4,850,000,000 in $BTC short liquidations. $2,360,000,000 in BTC long liquidations. Max pain is to the upside for Bitcoin. https://t.co/ENMQ40XntU

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,367 at 12 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,348 at 13 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 63348.49 / 63367.43 − 1 = -0.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time