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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 12 Aug 2026, 14:07 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC

Byzantine General

@ByzGeneral

CPI print today was within expectations which is good, it means that the FED is less pressured to rate hike. However, $BTC still looks weak. It probably needs to take out some of these local lows before we can see a meaningful bounce. https://t.co/eFpBEt8wBn

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,297 at 12 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,797 at 13 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 63797.14 / 63296.71 − 1 = +0.8%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “However, $BTC still looks weak.”
Confidence: 88%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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