Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 12 Aug 2026, 12:08 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:17 UTC

Kayne (formerly Penguin)

@ThePenguinXBT

Quoting · 11 Aug 2026, 17:26 UTC · context given to the AI

Took a 50% partial here on $ETH /+$1,102 realized🧪 https://t.co/wTFxOtMpUx https://t.co/iNcHYDe4xD

$ETH Trade Update 🧪 Liking the PA here, so I’m adding back into the short and moving my stop above the local highs. Added: 60 ETH Total position: 80 ETH TP: $1,819 SL: $1,941 https://t.co/SvuKXUIzdW https://t.co/Yrm28XDIPI

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,910 at 12 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,887 at 13 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 1887.11 / 1909.84 − 1 = -1.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$ETH Trade Update 🧪”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

Source post

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