Prediction evidence

Quoting · 27 Apr 2026, 18:19 UTC · context given to the AI

I’m still in the same $BTC short position. No celebrating yet, price is still slightly above my entry. I’ll be looking to reduce some risk on the portion I added to improve my average from 74.6K to 76K while price was trading at 78.4K. This isn’t because I’ve lost confidence, but simply to manage risk properly in case we see another sweep into FOMC. This is a method I use on most swing positions: look for signs of exhaustion, add to the trade, then close the added size at breakeven. In effect, I maintain the same core short exposure, but with an improved average entry. Until we accept below 75K, there’s nothing particularly bearish from a surface level PA perspective, as we’re still trading above the range. If we move back into the range, then a move below 70K becomes more likely. Nothing has changed regarding my overall thesis or plan, just a small update on how I’m managing the position.