Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,180 at 12 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,415 at 13 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC.
3. r = 63414.9 / 64179.67 − 1 = -1.19%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.19% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology