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Published 12 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC
Merlijn The Trader
@MerlijnTrader
BITCOIN BEARS WANT $40K. THE CHART THEY'RE USING SAYS THEY MISSED THE BOTTOM. Everyone lays 2022 over 2026. That pushes the low months into the future and has people waiting on a date instead of a level. Flip it. Put 2026 over 2022 and the structures line up on price. The low sits where Bitcoin has already traded. Now look at the room. All of CT is bearish. The news is bearish. The consensus thesis is down. That has always been one of the better indicators, and it rarely points where the crowd thinks it does. Price $63,526. Lose $58K on a weekly close and my alignment is wrong.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 63718.13 / 64052.35 − 1 = -0.5%d × r = -0.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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