Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 11 Aug 2026, 17:16 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC

Justin Bennett

@JustinBennettFX

In reply to · 11 Aug 2026, 16:21 UTC · context given to the AI

$ETH Really don't want to break that $1842 or there is a big drop to the blue line https://t.co/GbRuVxSYp1

@ShardiB2 Yep, and one step closer to completing yet another $ETH bear flag. https://t.co/VcaLZhOjZW

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,863 at 11 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,886 at 12 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 1886.03 / 1862.75 − 1 = +1.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@ShardiB2 Yep, and one step closer to completing yet another $ETH bear flag.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3