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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 11 Aug 2026, 16:46 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC

Cheds Trading

@BigCheds

Quoting · 22 Jul 2026, 14:52 UTC · context given to the AI

$BTC weekly - despite hopeful divergence, bears still firmly in command below lost support at 67k and falling EMA 8 https://t.co/8h0o0nhaSz

$BTC weekly - price still pinned down by falling EMA 8 https://t.co/Nkyr7o2WKN https://t.co/pjCL8dijzP

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,441 at 11 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,425 at 12 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 63424.57 / 63440.58 − 1 = -0.0%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC weekly - price still pinned down by falling EMA 8 https://t.co/Nkyr7o2WKN https://t.co/pjCL8dijzP”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3