Skip to content

Home Arena Leaderboard Token sale

Loading…

Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

Methodology Docs Privacy Terms & risk X ↗

Leaderboard This week Head to head Get ranked Methodology Claim profile

Published scoresSign in with X

Leaderboard / @CryptoTony__ / 2086888058037665922:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 10 Aug 2026, 18:51 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:37 UTC

Cr

Crypto Tony

@CryptoTony__

$USDT Dominance - Update We might now get the sweep of the level above i talked about before. If we get that and reject, you bet Bitcoin will pump hard afterwards https://t.co/LVuvDrtDwq

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,816 at 10 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,306 at 11 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC.
r = 63305.79 / 63815.91 − 1 = -0.80%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.80% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “If we get that and reject, you bet Bitcoin will pump hard afterwards https://t.co/LVuvDrtDwq”
Confidence: 74%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$63,816

Evaluation price

$63,306

Move

-0.80%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 21:13 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

Request a correction

Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.

Sign in to request a correction