Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 10 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

Quoting · 10 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: Bitcoin is now projected to NOT hit $50,000 before $100,000 https://t.co/YrqEKTvCd7

Everyone is getting bullish again. You know what normally happens next. 👀 $BTC loses $64.2K and I’m looking for a flush toward $62.5K. Don’t get comfortable just because the crowd expects $100K. https://t.co/9A7JwdN7Zc https://t.co/yUiVGfSabN

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,839 at 10 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,441 at 11 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 63440.58 / 63838.89 − 1 = -0.6%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC loses $64.2K and I’m looking for a flush toward $62.5K.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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