Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 10 Aug 2026, 12:57 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:54 UTC

Peter Schiff

@PeterSchiff

In reply to · 10 Aug 2026, 12:41 UTC · context given to the AI

@saylor This actually doesn’t make sense, why are you selling when BTC is low? Trying to understand the logic.

@airforcemomvet @saylor Actually compared to where it was years ago, and to where its going in future years, BTC is very high.

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,817 at 10 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,267 at 11 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 64266.51 / 64817.1 − 1 = -0.8%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@airforcemomvet @saylor Actually compared to where it was years ago, and to where its going in future years, BTC is very high.”
Confidence: 91%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3