Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $65,150 at 10 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,999 at 11 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC.
3. r = 63999.17 / 65149.85 − 1 = -1.8%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology