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Published 8 Aug 2026, 20:40 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
In reply to · 8 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC · context given to the AI
Bitcoin lost -93.1% in 2011 bear market. Drawdowns that followed hit -88%, -83.5% and -76.6%. In the current run, we reached -53.2% from the peak. There is a pattern of decreasing drawdowns. It's normal volatility falls as the market matures but bear's not done yet. Agreed? https://t.co/HMjzmK8kW4@crypto_birb Upside in previous bull market has been a full sigma lower than the bull markets before that. Counting that we're going to see the same bear market drawdowns as all of the bear markets before is therefore not very likely, it would be a massive outlier.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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