Prediction evidence

In reply to · 8 Aug 2026, 12:46 UTC · context given to the AI

Really is one of those moments to pay very close attention. I think a weekly close above ~$65.8k, you can start to see this range as a deviation, and you have to start operating with a much higher probability of the lows being in. Successful retest of that level and there is no bear argument for me. We have been tracking previous bear market cycles fairly closely, so even at this moment in time it's not unreasonable to assume we have one more low to come. And this week BTC has still been mogged by SPY, QQQ & Gold. However, one thing we didn't have in previous cycles was an ETF bid/passive flows. We've had positive flows every day this week for the first time in a while, and should that keep up then it could help to propel us out of this range. We are lacking a positive external catalyst (maybe surprise Clarity Act pass? but very doubtful), which is why it still feels more realistic to expect a nasty final flush gets us out of this drawdown, and completes the four year cycle. BTC does seem to always find a way to be very mechanical, and we still have the realised price sitting around 53k. In 18 months time you will still likely be quite happy with any entry in the 50s/60s.