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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 7 Aug 2026, 17:06 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$6,130,000,000 in short liquidations $4,100,000,000 in long liquidations Max pain is still to the upside for $ETH https://t.co/Plj5hVRERp

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,911 at 7 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,922 at 8 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 1922.48 / 1911.01 − 1 = +0.6%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Max pain is still to the upside for $ETH https://t.co/Plj5hVRERp”
Confidence: 94%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3