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Published 6 Aug 2026, 11:18 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC
John
@CryptoGodJohn
Quoting · 4 Aug 2026, 15:41 UTC · context given to the AI
Robinhood introduced prediction markets and now that's their biggest segment after options. Betting has cannibalized investment on the platform. https://t.co/IH58SsRyMT$MANIFEST feels extremely undervalued with how Prediction Markets are taking over Kalshi at $25b Poly at $20b Robinhood now is making most of its revenue from PM’s Manifest launching their own full fledged prediction market Very early & under valued https://t.co/njQUkXUW0WView original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 0.008920637048310242 / 0.008626531288662642 − 1 = +3.4%d × r = +3.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correctOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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