Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 5 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

Quoting · 5 Aug 2026, 15:01 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: 50% chance Bitcoin hits $50,000 before $100,000 https://t.co/miMic9A1M4

INSIGHTS: Kalshi traders are split 50/50. $50K first or $100K first. I'm not in the $50K camp. But that doesn't mean I'm buying here. My order today: short from $65,200. Target $60,576. Stop at $65,900. A relief rally into resistance is not a bottom. Trade the setup. Not the narrative.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,606 at 5 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,690 at 6 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 64690.14 / 64606.02 − 1 = +0.1%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “INSIGHTS: Kalshi traders are split 50/50. $50K first or $100K first. I'm not in the $50K camp. But that doesn't mean I'm buying here. My order today: short from $65,200. Target $60,576. Stop at $65,900. A relief rally into resistance is not a bottom. Trade the setup. Not the”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

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