Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 5 Aug 2026, 15:38 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC

Killa

@KillaXBT

Quoting · 5 Aug 2026, 15:01 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: 50% chance Bitcoin hits $50,000 before $100,000 https://t.co/miMic9A1M4

If $BTC doesn't break 60K in the next month or so, you can kiss 50K goodbye. I did mention the MO pivot & that we could see upside at the start of August. So you better hope we're forming a LH here. Otherwise, the longer we stay above 60K, the higher the chance we don't test lower.

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,327 at 5 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 30 days horizon, $79,423 at 4 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 79422.95 / 64327.09 − 1 = +23.5%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -23.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 30 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “If $BTC doesn't break 60K in the next month or so, you can kiss 50K goodbye.”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

Prediction evidence

Source post

How this was scored

AI interpretation

Outcome record

Request a correction